Check out the match preview and prediction for the third match of the 2025 State of Origin series between the New South Wales Blues and the Queensland Maroons.
MATCHDAY NEWS
MATCHDAY SCHEDULE
New South Wales Blues Vs Queensland Maroons
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Date: Wednesday July 9, 8:05pm (AEST)
MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS
Blues: 1. Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers), 2. Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers), 3. Stephen Crichton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 4. Latrell Mitchell (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 5. Zac Lomax (Parramatta Eels), 6. Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers), 7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers), 8. Max King (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs) , 9. Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys), 10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos), 11. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers), 12. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters), 13. Isaah Yeo (c) (Penrith Panthers), 14. Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters), 15. Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters), 16. Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders), 17. Stefano Utoikamanu (Melbourne Storm), 18. Jacob Kiraz (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 19. Lindsay Smith (Penrith Panthers), 20. Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights)
Maroons: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (The Dolphins), 2. Xavier Coates (Melbourne Storm), 3. Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters), 4. Gehamat Shibasaki (Brisbane Broncos), 5. Valentine Holmes (St George Illawarra Dragons), 6. Cameron Munster (c) (Melbourne Storm), 7. Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys), 8. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders), 9. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm), 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans), 11. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys), 12. Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors), 13. Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm), 14. Kurt Mann (Canterbury Bulldogs), 15. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters), 16. Pat Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos), 17. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys), 18. Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos), 19. J’maine Hopgood (Parramatta Eels), 20. Josh Kerr (The Dolphins)
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Chris Butler
MATCHDAY PREVIEW
They say “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned,” and the same can be said for Queenslanders.
After going down in game one in Brisbane, the Maroons bounced back in Perth, blowing New South Wales away in the first half and withstanding a fierce comeback to win 26-24 and force a decider in Sydney.
As with the opening two games of the series, game three has featured an uncharacteristically quiet build-up, with both teams keeping their cards close to their chest.
The main storylines heading into game three have been Accor Stadium selling out and Billy Slater’s selection gambles.
Slater made the brave call to drop captain Daly Cherry-Evans after the series opener, bringing Tom Dearden into the side, and naming Cameron Munster as the new skipper.
He’s gone bold again for game three, bringing Josh Papalii out of a three-year representative retirement in place of Moeaki Fotuaika and naming Gehamat Shibasaki to debut at centre, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow moving to fullback to replace the injured Kalyn Ponga.
Laurie Daley has named an unchanged New South Wales line-up for the final game of the series, relying on the same team that went down in Perth. Nathan Cleary (groin), Payne Haas (back), Brian To’o (calf), Hudson Young (groin), and Jarome Luai (infection) are all under injury clouds but are expected to play.
For New South Wales to win, they need to fix their discipline. Their first half in Perth was marred by a run of errors and penalties and they ended up trailing 26-6 at half-time. Although they came back in the second half, the damage had been done.
For Queensland to win, they need to play the full 80 minutes. They’ve arguably been outplayed in three of the four halves in the series so far and can’t rely on the Blues to play so poorly again in game three to win the series.
The key match-up is in the halves, with Luai and Cleary taking on Munster and Dearden. Cleary has been criticised for not dominating Origin football and the partnership between him and Luai at rep level has never reached the heights that it has at club level. The Munster-Dearden partnership is only in its second game but was a risky selection by coach Slater. Whichever halves win the game for their state will be praised, while the losing pair will be among the first people blamed.
Ten of the 43 previous Origin series have been won by the team losing the opening match, six of which were won by Queensland, most recently in 2017. There have been five deciders at Accor Stadium, with both sides winning two and the other finishing in a draw. The past three deciders there have been won by the team that lost the first game, including both of Queensland’s game three wins (2008 and 2013). Both states have won two deciders in the past six series. New South Wales haven’t won games one and three in the same Origin series since 2004. The Blues have never won a series when they’ve lost a game played at a neutral venue.
MATCHDAY PREDICTION
| Winner | First Try Scorer | Man of the Match | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Pelechaty | NSW by 6 | Brian To’o | Nathan Cleary |
| Brendan Wood | NSW by 2 | Zac Lomax | Payne Haas |
| Chris Petrie | NSW by 12 | Brian To’o | Nathan Cleary |
| Jem Nash | NSW by 6 | Zac Lomax | Dylan Edwards |
| Lachlan Jeffery | QLD by 4 | Latrell Mitchell | Cameron Munster |
| Mathew Williams | NSW by 10 | Zac Lomax | Payne Haas |
| Matt Attard | NSW by 28 | Brian To’o | Dylan Edwards |
| Matt Pritchard | NSW by 2 | Valentine Holmes | Angus Crichton |
| Nathan Smith | NSW by 8 | Stephen Crichton | Nathan Cleary |
| Shannon Meyer | QLD by 10 | Zac Lomax | Pat Carrigan |
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