All eyes turn to Accor Stadium as Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series approaches, and our panel is split on how it will unfold.
Seven of ten tipsters are backing the Blues to strike first on home soil, but there’s still strong support for Queensland to upset the odds. From predicted margins to first try scorers and man-of-the-match picks, here’s how our experts see the series opener playing out.
Expert predictions for State of Origin Game 1 2026, including NSW vs QLD tips and best bets.
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- NSW vs QLD → Read full preview: /state-of-origin-2026-game-1-blues-vs-maroons-preview
| Category | Matt Pritchard | Andrew Pelechaty | Brendan Wood | Chris Petrie | Jem Nash | Lachlan Jeffery | Mathew Williams | Matt Attard | Nathan Smith | Shannon Meyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW vs QLD (Result) | NSW by 14 | QLD by 6 | QLD by 4 | NSW by 10 | NSW by 2 | QLD by 12 | NSW by 10 | NSW by 16 | NSW by 8 | NSW by 12 |
| First Try Scorer | Hudson Young | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Selwyn Cobbo | Kotoni Staggs | Brian To’o | Toluta’u Koula | Selwyn Cobbo | Brian To’o | Brian To’o | Brian To’o |
| Man of the Match | Nathan Cleary | Harry Grant | Cameron Munster | James Tedesco | Nathan Cleary | Cameron Munster | Mitch Moses | James Tedesco | James Tedesco | James Tedesco |
Origin Snapshot
Biggest predicted margin: Matt Attard — NSW by 16
Strong NSW lean: 7 of 10 tipsters are backing the Blues.
Queensland backers: Andrew Pelechaty, Brendan Wood and Lachlan Jeffery are all riding with the Maroons.
Most popular first try scorer: Brian To’o (4 selections)
Most backed Man of the Match: James Tedesco (4 selections)
Unique calls:
- Hudson Young first try scorer (Matt Pritchard)
- Mitch Moses man of the match (Mathew Williams)
- Toluta’u Koula first try scorer (Lachlan Jeffery)
Closest predicted margin: Jem Nash — NSW by 2
