The Panthers return to Mudgee looking to keep their grip on top spot, while the Raiders hope a return to the scene of last year’s miracle win can reignite their fading finals hopes.

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Matchday Details

Saturday, 1 August 2026 – 5:30pm AEST – Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee
📺 Foxtel / Kayo
Referee: Adam Gee | Senior Review Official: Ashley Klein

Penrith Panthers: 1. Jaxen Edgar, 2. Thomas Jenkins, 3. Paul Alamoti, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Brian To’o, 6. Jack Cogger, 7. Nathan Cleary (c), 8. Moses Leota, 9. Freddy Lussick, 10. Lindsay Smith, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Billy Scott, 15. Scott Sorensen, 16. Liam Henry, 17. Billy Phillips, 18. Izack Tago, 19. Jack Cole, 20. Blaize Talagi, 21. Luron Patea, 22. Kalani Leuluai-Going

Canberra Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes, 2. Jed Stuart, 3. Simi Sasagi, 4. Matthew Timoko, 5. Xavier Savage, 6. Ethan Strange, 7. Ethan Sanders, 8. Corey Horsburgh, 9. Owen Pattie, 10. Joseph Tapine (c), 11. Zac Hosking, 12. Ata Mariota, 13. Morgan Smithies, 14. Tom Starling, 15. Matty Nicholson, 16. Josh Papalii, 17. Daine Laurie, 18. Sebastian Kris, 19. Joe Roddy, 20. Coby Black, 21. Savelio Tamale, 22. Vena Patuki-Case

Match Preview

It’s been nearly a year (Friday 22 August 2025) since Kaeo Weekes scored that viral Golden Point try. When Nathan Cleary set up for his field goal from 37 metres out, it looked like game over. But the ball hit the post, was caught by Jed Stuart, who ran and passed to Ethan Strange. Strange ran 60 metres down the left wing before passing inside to Weekes. It continued the 2025 Raiders’ trend of snatching unlikely wins from nowhere on their way to the minor premiership.

The result worked out well for Penrith: with their top four hopes gone, Ivan Cleary chose to rest most of his first-grade side – and wear the loss to Canterbury-Bankstown – to keep his stars fresh. It nearly worked as Penrith narrowly lost the preliminary final to Brisbane. Canberra won just one more game (against the Wests Tigers) as their wonderful season ended in a straight-set finals exit.

Fast-forward to this August, and Penrith (14-4) have a two-point lead in first place, while Canberra (9-10) are battling to sneak into the finals.

The Panthers are almost guaranteed to finish top four. At the moment, the only way they will need to leave Sydney in September is if the Warriors (third) finish ahead of them. But Penrith are so experienced in finals that it won’t matter if they have to play at CommBank Stadium, Allianz Stadium, or even Cronulla’s Ocean Protect Stadium.

While they have their third bye up their sleeve, Canberra need at least three wins from their remaining five games to make the finals (including games against Newcastle, Cronulla-Sutherland, and North Queensland) and to move their -35 differential into the positive.

For Penrith, Jaxen Edgar retains the fullback spot with Dylan Edwards still sidelined. Jack Cogger replaces the omitted Blaize Talagi. A big in for Canberra, with Owen Pattie returning from suspension and back into starting hooker, with Tom Starling on the bench. Ata Mariota starts in the second row with Noah Martin out until Round 26. Joe Roddy joins the bench to replace Vena Patuki-Case.

The key match-up is between Cleary and Ethan Sanders. After his NSW Origin win, Cleary is settling back into “clubland” mode. He’s scored 161 points and had 7,498 kicking metres so far this season, and also guided Penrith to a 30-18 win over Canberra in Round 10, scoring a try and kicking five goals. Sanders has developed into the Raiders’ first choice number seven in his first full season, potentially justifying the decision to let Jamal Fogarty go. With 143 points, he’s only 18 points behind Cleary, with 20 of those against the Wests Tigers last weekend. While there’s been some critics calling for Coby Black to replace Sanders, Ricky Stuart has stuck with Sanders and it’s paying off. Sanders has shown many times this season that he’s willing to make big plays: the match-winning field goal against Manly Warringah, nearly scoring the match-winning try against Canterbury, and a lovely “show and go” try against the Tigers last weekend (to name a few). He’ll need some more big moments to help Canberra beat Penrith.

Cleary will target Jed Stuart, Xavier Savage, and Weekes with his last-tackle kicks. Stuart’s selection has been debated by Raiders fans over the past few weeks, but he’s finally putting good performances together and the noise is subsiding, though this will be his biggest test. Savage loves using his speed to score a long-range try, so Penrith’s defenders – off Cleary’s kicking game – won’t want to give him any room. And everyone knows how dangerous Weekes is when given the opportunity to run. Sanders’ last-tackle kicking options have been a vital part of Canberra’s resurgence (8,536 kicking metres). Will he target Stuart’s height advantage against Brian To’o and also exploit Edgar’s inexperience? And can Canberra contain the prolific Thomas Jenkins, who’s doubled up (a minimum of two tries) 11 times this season?

With four straight wins, Canberra are in-form and confident. With a tough run home, their desperation to stay in the finals race could be enough against a Penrith side who will have bigger challenges ahead as they aim for a sixth grand final in seven seasons.

Prediction

RLZ Tip: Raiders by 2.
Full Round 22 tips → /nrl-round-22-predictions-2026/
Bold call: Kaeo Weekes to score a double.

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Andrew Pelechaty
Web Content Editor for Rugby League Zone.

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