The race for the finals is heating up. With just eight rounds to go, every win matters — and every loss stings. Based on form, fixtures, and our in-house power rankings, here’s how each team’s chances of cracking the Top 8 stack up heading into Round 20.
| # | Team | Pts Now | Minimum Points | Remaining Games (R20–R27) | RLZ Predicts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Raiders | 32 | 42 | R20–27: Eels (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Manly (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A) | Minor Premiers |
| 2 | Melbourne Storm | 30 | 40 | R20–27: Manly (A), Roosters (H), Eels (A), Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (A), Broncos (H) | Top 4 Lock |
| 3 | Bulldogs | 30 | 38 | R20–27: Dragons (H), Manly (A), Tigers (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (A) | Top 4 Lock |
| 4 | NZ Warriors | 28 | 34 | R20–27: Knights (H), Titans (A), Dolphins (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Manly (A) | Finals Bound |
| 5 | Brisbane Broncos | 24 | 32 | R20–27: Bye, Eels (H), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Dolphins (A), Knights (H), Cowboys (A), Storm (H) | Finals Bound |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers | 23 | 31 | R20–27: Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Dragons (A) | Finals Bound |
| 7 | Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 22 | 28 | R20–27: Storm (H), Bulldogs (A), Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A) | On the Bubble |
| 8 | Sydney Roosters | 22 | 28 | R20–27: Sharks (H), Storm (A), Manly (H), Dolphins (A), Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (H), Rabbitohs (A) | On the Bubble |
| 9 | Cronulla Sharks | 22 | 28 | R20–27: Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Cowboys (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A) | On the Bubble |
| 10 | Dolphins | 20 | 26 | R20–27: Cowboys (H), Bye, Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Manly (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H) | Outside Looking In |
| 11 | St George Illawarra | 16 | 20 | R20–27: Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (H), Manly (A), Panthers (H) | Must-win |
| 12 | North QLD Cowboys | 16 | 20 | R20–27: Dolphins (A), Dragons (H), Sharks (A), Eels (H), Knights (A), Tigers (H), Broncos (A), Bye | Must-win |
| 13 | Newcastle Knights | 16 | 20 | R20–27: Warriors (A), Raiders (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Cowboys (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (H), Eels (A) | Must-win |
| 14 | Wests Tigers | 16 | 20 | R20–27: Titans (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Bye, Manly (A), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (H) | Must-win |
| 15 | Parramatta Eels | 16 | 20 | R20–27: Raiders (H), Broncos (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Roosters (A), Warriors (H), Knights (A) | Must-win |
| 16 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 16 | 18 | R20–27: Panthers (A), Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Titans (H), Eels (A), Dragons (H), Bye, Roosters (A) | Wooden Spoon Contender |
| 17 | Gold Coast Titans | 14 | 16 | R20–27: Tigers (A), Warriors (H), Panthers (A), Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H) | Wooden Spoon Contender |
📈 Key Insights
- Canberra are favoured to win their first minor premiership since 1990. They only play two current top eight teams (Manly and Penrith) in their last seven games, and have one more bye. The Storm play five top eight teams (Manly, the Sydney Roosters and Brisbane twice, Penrith, and Canterbury), and they have no byes left. As an experienced finals team, Melbourne may be focused on securing a top two finish and backing themselves from there. By contrast, the minor premiership will be a massive achievement for a Raiders side who were pre-season wooden spoon favourites.
- The Dolphins have a tough run to their first finals series. They play the Warriors in Auckland, the Roosters and Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium, Manly at 4 Pines Park, Canberra at Kayo Stadium, and they have one more bye. The Dolphins’ big advantage is their +150 differential (the second best in the NRL), but they’ll need to win at least four more games to make it.
🧠 How We Calculate Probabilities
Our Top 8 projections are based on:
- Ladder position and current points
- Remaining draw difficulty
- Recent form (last 5 games)
- Bye status
