Check out the match preview and prediction for the opening match of the 2025 State of Origin Series between Queensland and New South Wales at Suncorp Stadium.
MATCHDAY NEWS
MATCHDAY SCHEDULE
Queensland Maroons Vs New South Wales Blues
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Date: Wednesday May 28, 8:05pm (AEST)
MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS
Maroons: 1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Moeaki Fotuaika, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan, 14. Tom Dearden, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Beau Fermor, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Kurt Mann, 19. Jesse Arthars, 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
Blues: 1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Mitchell Moses, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Mitchell Barnett, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Connor Watson, 15. Spencer Leniu, 16. Hudson Young, 17. Max King, 18. Campbell Graham, 19. Stefano Utoikamanu, 20. Haumole Olakau’atu
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Chris Butler
Rewind: Queensland’s Miracle 1995 Series Win
MATCHDAY PREVIEW
45 years after the first State of Origin clash, the 2025 series opens at the same ground, with New South Wales heading into the game as warm favourites, a scenario which probably suits Queensland just fine, although the pain of the 2024 series loss must still burn the Maroons and fill the Blues with confidence.
Most of the early days of this Game One lead-in has been more about who was left out or potentially left out through injury. Terrell May was one of the big talking points after being left out: but such was formidable wealth of talent for NSW forwards, and their credit in the bank from the 2024 series win, that the Blues could leave out one of the form props of the competition. One of the other form props of the competition is Payne Haas, and he entered camp under a big injury cloud. Same with his Broncos front row partner in Patrick Carrigan, who also looked in doubt, but his broken jaw was “only” a badly cut mouth.
Queensland go into the game as more of an underdog as usual, seemingly more affected by injuries than NSW. Reece Walsh is the headline absentee, but while his replacement Kalyn Ponga may have less flair, he probably has the same gain in reliability. Injuries in the three quarters has seen Queensland pick the Roosters centre Robert Toia after just 10 NRL games: a lack of experience heading into his first Origin game that he shares with Haas. These kinds of risks do tend to pay off more for Queensland than NSW, where player failures are punished more harshly. One thing going in the Maroons’ favour, compared to 2024, is that they have two of their better performed players in the team for 2025 in Cameron Munster and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, both of whom missed the entire series last year. Their returns are welcome.
Returning to the centres, and that is one of the key battles on the night. NSW have the match-turning strike power of Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton who is one of the form centres in the competition, while Queensland have Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow in the centres with the debutant Toia. That looks advantage NSW on paper, especially if Toia isn’t up to Origin speed straight away, but The Hammer does know how to score a try at Origin level and at Suncorp Stadium.
Another key battle is the halves, and this looks like advantage NSW again, with the Blues’ halves stocks so strong they can leave out one of their stars from last year’s series win Jarome Luai. But you can hardly leave out Nathan Cleary, who missed the 2024 series, and Mitchell Moses was key to the winning series after joining for games two and three. Queensland also missed Cameron Munster last season, and despite Tom Dearden’s excellent form, his return is welcome. The weak link could be Daly Cherry-Evans, despite his experience he’s hardly setting the world on fire like the other halves.
NSW on paper have the edge in the forward pack too – it helps having Haas. But the Blues have some real firepower and anger in their pack, in particular the second rowers Liam Martin and Angus Crichton. Queensland’s pack is a more workmanlike pack, with the occasional flair of Jeremiah Nanai, so it depends how the game plays out whether the NSW Blues’ extra fireworks to their advantage.
The interchange looks even, with comparable strengths for both sides. The number 14’s are evenly matches, and although Connor Watson has more experience as the actual dummy half, Tom Dearden was one of Queensland’s best last series and had to be included. Whether he would have been if Ben Hunt was fit is another question. The forward options on the bench mirror the forwards with NSW having more fiery, high-impact players like Spencer Leniu and Hudson Young, with Queensland calling on the very reliable NRL-level players Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero. Although Lindsay Collins can be quite the fiery inclusion himself.
The 2025 State of Origin series sees Laurie Daley return as Blues coach for a second stint. His first between 2013-2017 saw a 40% win rate and one series win from five attempts. He has Craig Bellamy’s help for this campaign which will surely help and ensure coaches box windows are strengthened ahead of the series. Billy Slater is starting his fourth campaign in charge of the Maroons, and this is a potential turning point series for his coaching career. His record is five wins and four losses, with two series wins from three, but the way Queensland finished the 2024 series leaves him in danger of keeping his job if the Maroons lose this series. Slater has felt increasingly snappy, and while it isn’t on the Richter scale of his former Storm coach, the cracks are appearing.
Slater and his team will have to do it the hard way, with a side that looks like the underdog on paper, coming off a reasonably brutal series loss in 2024, and NSW have some of their best players returning for 2025. Queensland wouldn’t have it any other way, but we will see on Wednesday whether the masses post-match walk up Caxton Street has a spring in its step.
This is the first Game One at Suncorp Stadium since 2019, and NSW have a better record than many may think. Excluding the stand-alone 1980 and 1981 games, there have been 20 games at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park to open a State of Origin series, and the wins are shared at 10 each. Of those 20 times the winner has gone on to win the series 14 times, but not the last two times, so there’s hope for the team that loses.
Again excluding 1980 and 1981, the H2H for first games at any ground is 23-21 to Queensland. The Game One winner has gone on to win the series 32/43 times: a 74% win rate, which is slightly higher than when the first game is at Suncorp Stadium.
Queensland have won the last three series openers at any ground, and five of the last six.
One final stat, going back to 2014: there have been opening State of Origin fixtures played at non-neutral grounds. The away team has won seven of those games.
MATCHDAY PREDICTION
| Winner | First Try Scorer | Man of the Match | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Pelechaty | NSW by 2 | Brian To’o | Nathan Cleary |
| Brendan Wood | NSW by 10 | Stephen Crichton | Latrell Mitchell |
| Chris Petrie | NSW by 10 | Zac Lomax | Nathan Cleary |
| Jem Nash | QLD by 2 | Xavier Coates | Cameron Munster |
| Lachlan Jeffery | NSW by 4 | Xavier Coates | Latrell Mitchell |
| Mathew Williams | NSW by 6 | Cameron Munster | Mitchell Moses |
| Matt Attard | NSW by 8 | Xavier Coates | Isaah Yeo |
| Matt Pritchard | QLD by 6 | Robert Toia | Jeremiah Nanai |
| Nathan Smith | NSW by 12 | Latrell Mitchell | Isaah Yeo |
| Shannon Meyer | QLD by 8 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Pat Carrigan |
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