Round 27 of the NRL delivered upsets, breakout performers, and a few big warning signs. Here are the three biggest takeaways every fan needs to know — and what they mean for the weeks ahead.
1.The Top Four Contenders
With the top four decided (Canberra Raiders, Melbourne Storm, Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Brisbane Broncos), who is the favourite to win the premiership?
While Canberra have been the fairytale team, their big test comes against Brisbane. The Broncos are the team Raiders fans would be most nervous about. Even infront of a sold-out GIO Stadium, the pressure of expectation and lack of finals experience could be a factor. Canberra have the advantage of a reasonably healthy roster, young stars with confidence and momentum, and Ricky Stuart’s coaching experience: will it be enough to break their 31-year premiership drought?
Melbourne have been premiership favourites all season, but losses to the Sydney Roosters and Brisbane (a rare loss at Suncorp Stadium), a fractured arm for Jahrome Hughes (possibly season ending), and Nelson Asofa-Solomona’s potential suspension, has put a spanner in the works. But with two home finals, Harry Grant returning, and driven by the pain of losing last year’s grand final, they should still be warm favourites.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs have fallen off a cliff, losing four of their last six games. They were dominated by Cronulla in round 27, and their decision not to rest players when third spot was secure might hurt them: Bronson Xerri is out of the Melbourne qualifying final, Villiame Kikau will be a question mark, and Marcelo Montoya left the game with an ankle injury. While the Bulldogs are developing under Cameron Ciraldo, fans may have to wait a little bit longer for another premiership.
Brisbane have flown into the top four with five wins from seven since their last bye, and they’ve shown they have plenty of points and “highlight reel” moments, though their defence can be a liability at times (conceding 21 points per game). If Reece Walsh continues his recent form, and Adam Reynolds returns, then Brisbane could come from the clouds and go deep into September.
Though, assuming there’s no upsets, a Canberra vs Melbourne Grand Final looks most likely.
Embed from Getty Images2. Are Cronulla Ready to Step Up?
For neutral fans, Cronulla have a reputation as “pretenders” and “flat track bullies”: good enough to make the finals, but unable to take the next step. Their long finals victory drought, finally broken in last year’s semi-finals, backed up those tags.
This season looked like more of the same: big wins against bottom eight teams but unable to beat top eight contenders (losses to Penrith, Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Canberra, the Sydney Roosters, the New Zealand Warriors, and Melbourne).
Arguably the the two biggest disappointments were against Canberra (round 5) and the Wests Tigers (round 8). They led Canberra 20-18 in the final minutes before Sebastian Kris’ miracle try. And they trailed the Tigers 18-6 before William Kennedy and Billy Burns levelled the scores, but Daniel Atkinson bombed a try with 30 seconds left and Adam Doueihi sealed the game with a Golden Point penalty goal. Cronulla would be in the top four if they’d won those.
And then there was the loss to the Roosters in round 12: while the Roosters were missing their Origin players, and Cronulla were full-strength, the Roosters still won 42-16.
But Cronulla has been one of the form teams running into the finals. They’ve won seven from eight, broken by a shock loss to St George Illawarra. While they’ve only played two top eight teams (beating both the Roosters and Canterbury), they made the most of a good run home.
If Cronulla want to be a premiership threat, they’ll need to go the long way, starting with a home elimination final against the Roosters (with Nicho Hynes free to play after his Dangerous Contact charge was downgraded). If they beat them, they’ll play the loser of Canberra vs Brisbane, and then Melbourne or Canterbury in the preliminary final. The Sharks are fortunate to be on the other side of the draw to Penrith, as the four-time premiers have the experience to be a premiership threat.
But a good showing in this finals series might chip away at the notion that the Sharks can’t compete with the elite teams.
3. Will the “50” Legend Be Broken?
Whenever an NRL team concedes 50 points, the usual memes and jokes appear on social media: they can’t win the premiership, their season is over, they may as well pack it up and prepare for next year.
But Canberra have a chance to defy that legend. While they lost 62-24 against The Dolphins, there was a big asterisks: they rested 11 first graders as the minor premiership was secured in round 26. For all the debates about resting players (and potentially introducing a Wildcard Weekend or pre-finals bye round), Canberra had earned the right to rest as many as they wanted to. And the Dolphins had already scored 50+ points three times this season, so 62 against the “Baby Raiders” wasn’t a surprise.
Though this won’t stop people from looking at the score, not looking at the context of the game, and posting “Canberra can’t win the premiership” memes.
Most Raiders fans won’t be concerned by the Dolphins loss: Canberra showed some spirit after trailing 30-0 at half-time. Ricky Stuart’s had a history of resting players before finals if needed. It’s possibly motivated by his injury against Parramatta in 1993. The Raiders were carving up the Eels at Bruce Stadium and set for a last round minor premiership clash against Canterbury. But Ricky’s injury ended Canberra’s premiership hopes: they lost to Canterbury and lost both finals games to St George and Brisbane.
The closest team to concede 50 and win the grand final was Newcastle in 2001: they lost 49-30 to Cronulla-Sutherland.
Can Canberra win the premiership after conceding 50 and finally put the legend – and the memes – to bed?
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat stood out most for you in Round 27? Drop your thoughts in the comments or tag us on social media.
