Round 25 of the NRL delivered upsets, breakout performers, and a few big warning signs. Here are the three biggest takeaways every fan needs to know — and what they mean for the weeks ahead.
1. Top Two Locked In
Friday night lived up to the hype as the top two were decided for 2025.
Canberra beat Penrith in a Golden Point thriller at Mudgee, with an incredible try to Kaeo Weeks (set up by Ethan Strange) after Nathan Cleary’s field goal attempt hit the post. While Melbourne had a relatively comfortable win over Canterbury-Bankstown at AAMI Park (leading 20-10 with 16 minutes left), Bulldogs fans could feel aggrieved after a late Stephen Crichton try was disallowed.
The two wins saw Canberra (42, +172) and Melbourne (40, +258) locked into first and second. Canterbury (36, +114) are third and the NZ Warriors (34, +26) are fourth, followed by Brisbane (32, +148), Cronulla-Sutherland (32, +67), and Penrith (31, +111).
While Canberra and Melbourne deserve their top two spots, there isn’t the same air of inevitability about this year’s grand final as there was in 2024. While Melbourne (driven by the 2024 Grand Final loss) will be strong favourites to make another grand final, Canberra’s lack of finals experience (only Josh Papalii, Joseph Tapine, and Corey Horsburgh remain from the 2019 Grand Final) could hurt then, and Canterbury and the Warriors look to be running out of fuel at the wrong time. Brisbane and Penrith are the most likely to disrupt a potential Canberra vs Melbourne Grand Final.
2. Souths and Parramatta are Building For 2026
At this time of the season, most bottom eight teams are preparing for their end-of-season break, followed by a long summer of pre-season training.
But South Sydney and Parramatta have shown they’re still invested in 2025 and are building momentum for 2026.
The Rabbitohs have had a horrible season: missing the finals for the third straight year, and an injury toll so bad that they’ve had to field NSW Cup-standard sides at times. Maybe it’s the Wayne Bennett factor, but Souths have found their second wind when they’ve had every excuse not to. They’ve won three in a row (including a 40-0 hammering of St George Illawarra), and their losses to Cronulla-Sutherland and Brisbane had moments of promise. And then there’s the race to get Alex Johnston past Ken Irvine (he needs three tries against the Roosters in round 27). In a disrupted season, Jye Gray has been outstanding, playing 18 games and bolstering Souths’ defence whenever he’s available. While Latrell Mitchell is a superstar, Gray deserves to keep his place in the starting 17 when Mitchell returns.
While Parramatta never recovered from a 1-5 start to the season, coach Jason Ryles has shown he’s willing to stick with the rebuild, briefly dropping Dylan Brown after he signed with Newcastle, and moving him to centre upon his return. Mitchell Moses has made a huge difference when available (playing in five of Parramatta’s eight wins), Isaiah Iongi has been incredible (playing 19 games out of 22), and Josh Addo-Carr and Zac Lomax have been match-winners at times. The Eels’ win over the Roosters showed that Parramatta haven’t checked out of 2025 yet. And their final games against the Warriors and Newcastle are both winnable.
Both Rabbitohs and Eels fans have plenty to look forward to in 2026.
3. Can The Dolphins Make the Finals?
The Dolphins rallied after an 0-4 start to the season, which makes their late fadeout to potentially miss the finals again even more shattering.
The Dolphins have shown how destructive they are in attack: the second-highest For differential (623) and three scores of 50+ and two of 40+. Jamayne Isaako (246) is the season’s leading points-scorer and goalkicker (103) and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (18 tries) is third in the Ken Irvine Medal.
Like their first two seasons, injuries have caught up with them. Herbie Farnworth’s hamstring injury in round 22 was arguably the most devastating. Since then they’ve lost to the Sydney Roosters (64-12), Brisbane (38-28), and Manly Warringah (58-30). Their once impressive points differential is down to +81, nearly on par with the eighth-placed Roosters (+72), whose loss to Parramatta kept the Dolphins’ season alive.
So, can the Dolphins make the eight? They have winnable games against the Gold Coast and Canberra to finish the season. The Titans are likely wooden spooners, and with a top two spot secured, the Raiders are likely to rest key players for the round 27 game, giving the Dolphins a big chance.
Even if they miss out, the Dolphins have shown signs they’ll be finals contenders again in 2026.
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat stood out most for you in Round 25? Drop your thoughts in the comments or tag us on social media.
