As the 2026 NRL season kicks off in Las Vegas, the comp is primed for chaos. Rebuilding Roosters chasing glory with big-name recruits, a premiership hangover hitting the Broncos hard, a potential first-time coach casualty up north, and even Samoa storming to World Cup immortality — these aren’t safe bets. These are 10 bold, neck-on-the-line predictions that could either look genius or get us roasted by season’s end. Buckle up: the year ahead promises fireworks, heartbreak, and history.
1. Parramatta Finish Top Four
Jason Ryles showed in his first season at the Eels that he wasn’t afraid to make big decisions. He let then-captain Clint Gutherson depart the club after opting for young gun Isaiah Iongi at fullback, brought Josh Addo-Carr in to revitalise his career, and left Dylan Brown out of the side in order to work on combinations for 2026. Plenty questioned the decision to sign Jonah Pezet for one season: but his combination with Mitchell Moses will prove that if they click early, they won’t just be competitive, they will be the dark horses of the 2026 season.
2. Isaiya Katoa Makes Origin Debut
Embed from Getty ImagesNew South Wales fans are notoriously harsh on their halfbacks, and with Nathan Cleary finishing on the wrong end of the scoreboard in 2025, they will be looking for new blood. With the recent changes to State of Origin eligibility, it means players like Dolphins halfback Isaiya Katoa will no longer have to choose between New South Wales and New Zealand. Blues selectors will look to the 22-year-old as their long-term halfback.
3. Nathan Cleary Wins Dally M
Without Origin to distract him, Cleary will have a full season for the Panthers for the first time since their incredible run in 2020. After their poor start to last year, and falling short of a fifth-consecutive premiership, Cleary and the Panthers will be extra motivated in 2026, with the extra drive enough for the halfback to dominate and claim his first Dally M Medal.
4. Roosters Win Premiership
The standards at the Sydney Roosters are high and the expectations are higher. Despite 2025 being a rebuilding season for them, they were still disappointed to finish eighth and be eliminated from the finals in week one. Their young players impressed, however the lack of experience in the squad showed regularly. With Daly Cherry-Evans on board for season 2026, he will give them the calm head they need to close out tight games. The addition of Reece Robson at hooker will give them a genuine dummy-half for the first time in years (when he returns from injury, with Connor Watson likely to be starting hooker now) and the young guns will get better around them, with the club’s 16th premiership to follow.
5. Bulldogs and Raiders Miss Finals
At least two teams have dropped out of the finals every year since 2002, and unfortunately for Canterbury and Canberra fans, 2026 will be a long year for them. The disappointment of exiting the finals in the fashion they did (both went out with back-to-back losses) will be tough to overcome. Both also have new combinations that need to be worked on, with the Bulldogs still trying to find the combination between Matt Burton and Lachlan Galvin, and the Raiders looking for a halfback to replace Jamal Fogarty (at this stage Ethan Sanders, though Coby Black could provide some competition).
6. Cooper Bai Wins Rookie of the Year
Embed from Getty ImagesFor the first time in a long time, there is optimism with the quality of young players coming through on the Gold Coast, with Cooper Bai (son of former Melbourne and Gold Coast Chargers winger Marcus Bai) at the top of the tree. Bai made his mark in 2025, playing for Queensland’s under 19s in June before going on to make his first grade debut in the final round after just seven Queensland Cup games. Having re-signed with the club at the start of February, the skilful back rower will earn a first grade spot in Josh Hannay’s new-look side and take the NRL by storm.
7. Todd Payten First Coach Sacked
Todd Payten’s five years at North Queensland have been nothing short of a rollercoaster, following up finals finishes by plummeting down the ladder. Their struggles in 2025 were largely tied to the unavailability of Jason Taumalolo, however they still have to work out who will partner Tom Dearden in the halves and who will replace Robson at hooker. They also must fix their leaky defence all while staring down a tough draw to start the season. All these factors combine to make life tough for Payten and he could be gone by Magic Round.
8. Brisbane Broncos’ Premiership Hangover
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter finally getting the monkey off their back with their thrilling grand final win, the Broncos enter 2026 as the team to beat and with momentum on their side. Going from the hunter to the hunted is notoriously difficult and it could prove too tough for Brisbane, particularly with the distraction of Payne Haas’ impending departure. While they will be up near the top of the table for most of the year, a tough run home, featuring a lot of travel and games against other contenders, could see them slide out of the top four and into an early finals exit.
9. Dolphins Make Finals Debut
After coming close and falling at the final hurdle in the past two seasons, Redcliffe’s Dolphins will finally break through for their maiden finals campaign. With their backline featuring the attacking flamboyance of Farnworth, Tabuai-Fidow, and Cobbo, a tough forward pack led by the returning Tom Flegler and the dynamic Katoa leading them around, the Dolphins will be confident of sneaking into the top eight, meeting the Broncos in a Battle for Brisbane elimination final.
10. Samoa Win Rugby League World Cup
Embed from Getty ImagesThere has been plenty of criticism of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, from the confusing group stages to the reduction of teams from 16 to 10. There will be a silver lining though, with Samoa making history as the first nation outside Australia, New Zealand, and Great Britain to win the tournament. They finished as runners-up in the 2022 tournament in the United Kingdom and had their opportunities to beat New Zealand in both Pacific Championships matches in 2025. Australia, England, and Tonga were all unimpressive in their Test matches in 2025, with Samoa bringing back a full-strength line-up to change rugby league history.
