With 14 rounds gone, now is a good time to assess each team’s placings at the (roughly) halfway mark of 2025. Who’s destined to go deep into September? Who might just miss out? And who can start preparing for 2026?
1st: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (Won 10, Lost 2, 2 Byes – Points Differential +92)
Canterbury have build on their drought-breaking 2024 finals appearance, winning their first six games and averaging less than 10 points conceded per game. Although some cracks have appeared in later wins, trailing Canberra 20-0 (winning 32-20) and trailing the Sydney Roosters 14-0 (winning 24-20). They bounced back from a heavy loss to the Dolphins (44-8) – minus their Origin players – with a 30-12 King’s Birthday win over Parramatta (their second win over Parramatta this season).
Embed from Getty Images2nd: Canberra Raiders (Won 11, Lost 3, 0 Byes – Points Differential +96)
After losing more experience in Jordan Rapana and Elliot Whitehead at the end of 2024, many pundits had the rebuilding Raiders as wooden spoon favourites. Add in a hectic travel schedule (Las Vegas, Townsville, and Darwin in the first six rounds) as well as no byes until round 15 and the Raiders had plenty of excuses to write this season off. But Canberra became the first team to win ten games, with nine wins out of ten from round 5 to round 14. They’ve also made a habit of big comeback wins: from 16-0 down against the Gold Coast (30-20), 28-10 against the Dolphins (40-28), 14-0 against Melbourne (20-18), 18-8 against the Sydney Roosters (26-24), and 12-0 against South Sydney (36-12 – celebrating Josh Papalii’s record-breaking 319th game). On top of that, their once-limited attack has grown legs (396 points and a +96 differential), with the imminently departing Jamal Fogarty scoring 110 points (two tries and 51 goals).
Embed from Getty Images3rd: New Zealand Warriors (Won 10, Lost 3, 1 Bye – Points Differential +35)
The Warriors are one of three teams to chalk up at least ten wins this season. While the legendary Shaun Johnson’s retirement could have left an unfillable hole, Luke Metcalf has been sensational, moving to halfback and leading the Warriors into the top-four. He’s played all 13 games, scoring 113 points (eight tries, 40 goals, and one one-point field goal), including kicking the Golden Point penalty goal against Brisbane on Easter Saturday, and scoring 11 of the Wahs’ 15 points as they came from 14-0 down against St George Illawarra. Two of their three losses came against Canberra: 30-8 in Vegas and 16-10 in Auckland. The Warriors have also won six out of seven games in Australia: an important stat if they want to make another grand final.
Embed from Getty Images4th: Melbourne Storm (Won 8, Lost 4, 2 Byes – Points Differential +171)
It speaks volumes about Melbourne’s consistency that they’re in the top-four despite not being at their best so far. Huge wins over Parramatta (56-18), Manly Warringah (48-24), the NZ Warriors (42-14), and the Wests Tigers (64-0) have helped their +171 differential, but they’ve had some surprising losses. They led the Dolphins 16-2 and lost 42-22, led Canberra 14-0 and lost 20-18, and lost a spiteful game against Cronulla-Sutherland (31-26). After a horrible run with injuries, Ryan Papenhuyzen is staying fit and is thriving: 148 points (12 tries and 50 goals), including 36 against the Tigers (four tries and 10 goals), underlines his wonderful campaign so far.
Embed from Getty Images5th: Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (Won 7, Lost 6, 1 Bye – Points Differential +14)
After breaking their finals hoodoo last season, Cronulla looked like going a couple of steps further in 2025. But they’ve been mostly disappointing when considering their higher expectations. They led Canberra 20-18 before Sebastian Kris scored a miracle last-minute try; and they came from 18-6 down against the Tigers, only to lose 20-18 in Golden Point (with Adam Doueihi kicking the winning penalty goal). The Sharks won three straight from rounds 9-11, followed by heavy losses to the Sydney Roosters (42-16) and the Warriors (40-10), as they started losing touch with the top-four.
Embed from Getty Images6th: North Queensland Cowboys (Won 5, Lost 6, Drawn 1, 2 Byes – Points Differential -52)
The Cowboys’ 30th anniversary season has been hard to judge. They lost their first three games then won their next four. They nearly ran down the Warriors in Magic Round (30-26) and drew with Penrith (30-30) – trailing 30-18 with 14 minutes left. Then they had a big home loss to Manly (24-6) and held on against the Wests Tigers (32-28) after leading 32-6.
Embed from Getty Images7th: The Dolphins (Won 6, Lost 7, 1 Bye – Points Differential +92)
The infamous “Bennett Curse” seemed to strike the Dolphins as 2025 began: the Queensland floods forced their opening home game against Souths to be moved to Sydney, and they started with four straight losses. While they got back in the pack with three straight wins (including the Good Friday win against Melbourne), they squandered a potential fourth – despite leading Canberra 28-10 at half-time (losing 40-28). And the 56-6 win against St George Illawarra in round 14 was the biggest win in the Dolphins’ NRL history. Jamayne Isaako has scored 146 points (seven tries and 59 goals), including hauls of 24 against the Dragons, 20 against the Bulldogs, and 20 against the Gold Coast.
Embed from Getty Images8th: Brisbane Broncos (Won 6, Lost 7, 1 Bye – Points Differential +44)
After Kevin Walters was sacked at the end of 2024, Michael “Madge” Maguire was supposed to turn the club around with his disciplined approach. While Brisbane won four of their first five games, they’ve won only two since then, even blowing a 14-0 lead against South Sydney (losing 22-14) and a 12-0 lead against St George Illawarra (losing 30-26). They lifted for Adam Reynolds’ 300th game by beating the Gold Coast 44-14 (with Reynolds scoring 106 points this season from three tries, 46 goals, and one two-point field goal), but it’s hard to see them being a genuine threat if they make the finals.
Embed from Getty Images9th: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Won 6, Lost 7, 1 Bye – Points Differential +42)
Manly have failed to back up their semi-finals appearance last season, with their consistency a massive problem. They’ve looked destructive at their best, putting 40 on North Queensland (42-12) and Canberra (40-12). But they’ve also lost 36-16 to the Warriors, 48-24 to Melbourne, 30-14 to Cronulla, and 30-10 to Parramatta. Reuben Garrick has scored 126 points (six tries and 51 goals) this season, including 28 against Canberra (four tries and six goals). The Daly Cherry-Evans drama was also an unwanted distraction, when the veteran Queenslander sprung on the club that this will be his last season at Brookvale, though Manly have already moved on by signing Jamal Fogarty as a replacement for 2026.
Embed from Getty Images10th: Sydney Roosters (Won 5, Lost 7, 2 Byes – Points Differential -22)
With no Sam Walker or Brandon Smith for the first half of the season (Smith eventually moving to South Sydney), and no Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, expectations were unusually low for the Eastern Suburbs side this season. They met that low bar with a 1-4 start. Fortunes turned after their round 6 win against Brisbane (26-16), winning four of their next seven to get right back in the top-eight mix. Rugby union convert Mark Nawaqanitawase scored the early favourite for try of the year against Canterbury.
Embed from Getty Images11th: St George Illawarra Dragons (Won 5, Lost 7, 2 Byes – Points Differential -47)
While any team coached by Shane Flanagan will be competitive, a few close losses have hurt the Dragons. Five of their losses have been by eight points or less (28-20 vs Canterbury, 25-24 vs South Sydney, 23-22 vs Parramatta, 34-28 vs Wests Tigers, 15-14 vs Warriors). But perhaps the greatest embarrassment was saved for when they were humbled by the Sydney Roosters on Anzac Day (46-18) and The Dolphins (56-6).
Embed from Getty Images12th: South Sydney Rabbitohs (Won 6, Lost 7, 1 Bye – Points Differential -82)
It’s been another up-and-down season for Souths, despite the return of master coach Wayne Bennett. Injuries have destroyed them to the point they’ve fielded NSW Cup-standard sides, but they’ve still found ways to win. Their standout wins have been against St George Illawarra (coming from 24-12 down to win 25-24), arch-rivals the Sydney Roosters (20-14), and Brisbane (coming from 14-0 down to win 22-14). Alex Johnston (201 tries) is within sight of Ken Irvine’s try-scoring record (212): with at least 11 games left, hopefully he can break the record this season. It will be a special day for South Sydney if he can do it.
Embed from Getty Images13th: Penrith Panthers (Won 5, Lost 7, Drawn 1, 1 Bye – Points Differential -9)
After five years at the top, Penrith are finally looking like mortals, but are still hanging in there. Sitting last after eight rounds, their resurgence started with a 32-8 win over Brisbane during Magic Round, followed by a draw against North Queensland (30-30), a loss to Newcastle (25-6) minus their Origin players, and wins over Parramatta (18-10) and the Wests Tigers (18-14). If Penrith can squeeze into the eight, then their premiership experience (especially if Nathan Cleary is fit) could be invaluable.
Embed from Getty Images14th: Wests Tigers (Won 5, Lost 8, 1 Bye – Points Differential -62)
While this has been the Tigers’ best season since 2021 (when they finished 13th), controversy and drama has still followed them around. The Lachlan Galvin saga began over Easter, with Galvin eventually switching to Canterbury: one of his last acts in a Tigers jersey was a bombed try in the 22-12 loss to South Sydney in round 11, with Heath Mason taking over from round 13. The Tigers have been much more competitive (consecutive wins in rounds 2 and 3, and three wins from rounds 6 to 9), and Jarome Luai’s premiership experience has made a huge difference to their overall attitude.
Embed from Getty Images15th: Newcastle Knights (Won 5, Lost 8, 1 Bye – Points Differential -65)
A come-from-behind win over Manly in round 14 shouldn’t paper over the cracks of a poor season for Newcastle so far. They’ve won just three games since round 3 and lost four in a row at McDonald Jones Stadium. Their attack has been abysmal at times: averaging just 14 points a game. Their low point came with consecutive home losses to the Gold Coast (after leading 20-0) and Parramatta (28-6), two sides they would have fancied beating. One bright spot has been the hat-tricks to Fletcher Sharpe (against Souths) and Dylan Lucas (against Penrith).
Embed from Getty Images16th: Parramatta Eels (Won 4, Lost 9, 1 Bye – Points Differential -105)
Paramatta’s season can be divided into two sections: pre-Mitchell Moses and post-Mitchell Moses. The halfback missed the first seven rounds, with the Eels winning only one game (23-22 against St George Illawarra). And there were heavy defeats against Melbourne (56-18), the Wests Tigers (32-6), and Canberra (50-12). But Moses’ return had an immediate impact, with the Eels winning the Easter Monday game against the Tigers (38-22). That was followed by wins against Newcastle (28-6) and Manly Warringah (30-10 – though Moses was missing on Origin duties).
Embed from Getty Images17th: Gold Coast Titans (Won 3, Lost 9, 2 Byes, – Points Differential -142)
It has been yet another disappointing season for the Titans. They’ll almost certainly miss the finals for the fourth straight season, are a big chance for their third wooden spoon, and who knows how long Des Hasler will survive after it was reported his job is dependent on a finals appearance this year? They’ve beaten Newcastle twice (26-6 and 24-20), but have lost twice each to Canterbury-Bankstown (40-24, 38-18) and Canberra (30-20, 40-24), and conceded 50 against North Queensland (50-18).
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